forecastur_oecd.zip (932.67 kB)

Data for: Forecasting unemployment across countries: The ins and outs

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posted on 18.07.2019 by Regis Barnichon
Abstract of associated article: This paper evaluates the flow approach to unemployment forecasting proposed by Barnichon and Nekarda (2012) for a set of OECD countries characterized by very different labor markets. We find that the flow approach yields substantial improvements in forecast accuracy over professional forecasts for all countries, with especially large improvements at longer horizons (one-year ahead forecasts) for European countries. Moreover, the flow approach has the highest predictive ability during recessions and turning points, when unemployment forecasts are most valuable.

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